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Author: Gamals Ahmed, Business Ambassadorsubmitted by CoinEx_Institution to u/CoinEx_Institution [link] [comments]
One of the key themes in 2020 is the rise of decentralized financing (DeFi), a new type of financing that works on decentralized protocols and without the need for financial intermediaries. Lately, the number of DeFi apps has increased significantly, but many have not been seen or heard by many of us.
In this Article I will be building a list of the best DApps, which will likely lead the next phase. DeFi apps can be categorized into different subcategories such as:
Note: Some of the projects in the report categorized into more than one section in the types of dApps.
The rise of DeFi Bitcoin (BTC) was the first implementation of decentralized financing. It enabled individuals to conduct financial transactions with other individuals without the need for a financial intermediary in the digital age. Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies were the first wave of DeFi. The second wave of DeFi was enabled by Ethereum blockchain which added another layer of programmability to the blockchain. Now, at the beginning of 2020, individuals and companies can borrow, lend, trade, invest, exchange and store crypto assets in an unreliable way. In 2020, we can expect the amount of money held in lending protocols to increase as long-term investors diversify into interest-bearing offers, especially if the market fails to rise towards the 2017/18 highs. On the other hand, active crypto traders are becoming increasingly interested in decentralized trading offers. The increasing level of money security offered by decentralized trading platforms should not only see an increase in trading of DApp users, but also in the number of non-custodial trading and exchange platforms available.
Lending: DeFi allows anyone to obtain or provide a loan without third party approval. The vast majority of lending products use common cryptocurrencies such as Ether ($ ETH) to secure outstanding loans through over-collateral. Thanks to the emergence of smart contracts, maintenance margins and interest rates can be programmed directly into a borrowing agreement with liquidations occurring automatically if the account balance falls below the specified collateral. The relative benefit gained from supplying different cryptocurrencies is different for the asset and the underlying platform used.
Compound is a money market protocol on the Ethereum blockchain — allowing individuals, institutions, and applications to frictionlessly earn interest on or borrow cryptographic assets without having to negotiate with a counterparty or peer. Each market has a dynamic borrowing interest rate, which floats in real-time as market conditions adjust. Compound focuses on allowing borrowers to take out loans and lenders to provide loans by locking their crypto assets into the protocol. The interest rates paid and received by borrowers and lenders are determined by the supply and demand of each crypto asset. Interest rates are generated with every block mined. Loans can be paid back and locked assets can be withdrawn at any time. While DeFi may seem overwhelming complex to the average individual, Compound prides itself on building a product that is digestible for users of all backgrounds. Compound is a protocol on the Ethereum blockchain that establishes money markets, which are pools of assets with algorithmically derived interest rates, based on the supply and demand for the asset. Suppliers (and borrowers) of an asset interact directly with the protocol, earning (and paying) a floating interest rate, without having to negotiate terms such as maturity, interest rate, or collateral with a peer or counterparty. Built on top of that principle is cTokens, Compound’s native token that allows users to earn interest on their money while also being able to transfer, trade, and use that money in other applications. OVERVIEW ABOUT COMPOUND PROTOCOL Compound Finance is a San Francisco based company, which raised an $8.2 M seed round in May of 2018, and a $25M Series A round in November of 2019. Financing rounds were lead by industry giants including but not limited to Andressen Horowitz, Polychain Capital, Coinbase Ventures and Bain Capital Ventures, Compound Finance is a sector-leading lending protocol enabling users to lend and borrow popular cryptocurrencies like Ether, Dai and Tether. Compound leverages audited smart contracts responsible for the storage, management, and facilitation of all pooled capital. Users connect to Compound through web3 wallets like MetaMask with all positions being tracked using interest-earning tokens called cTokens.
Compound recently introduced a governance token — COMP. It holds no economic benefits and is solely used to vote on protocol proposals. The distribution of COMP has absolutely exceeded expectations on all fronts. Compound is now the leading DeFi protocol both in terms of Total Value Locked and in terms of COMP’s marketcap relative to other DeFi tokens. COMP was recently listed on Coinbase — the leading US cryptocurrency exchange and has seen strong interest from dozens of other exchanges including futures platforms like FTX. Compound’s new governance system is well underway, with close to close to 10 proposals being passed since it’s launch. What’s unique about COMP’s governance model is that tokenholders can delegate their tokens to an address of their choice. Only those who hold more than 1% of the supply can make new proposals. Besides earning interest on your crypto assets, which is a straightforward process of depositing crypto assets on the platform and receiving cTokens, you can also borrow crypto on Compound. Borrowing crypto assets has the added step of making sure the value of your collateral stays above a minimum amount relative to your loan. Compound and DeFi more broadly wants to help people have more access and control over the money they earn and save. While the project has had its criticisms, the long-term goal of Compound has always been to become fully decentralized over time. The Compound team currently manages the protocol, but they plan to eventually transfer all authority over to a Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) governed by the Compound community. For following the project:
DEXs: Decentralized exchanges allow users to switch their assets without the need to transfer custody of basic collateral. DEXs aim to provide unreliable and interoperable trading across a wide range of trading pairs.
Kyber is a blockchain-based liquidity protocol that allows decentralized token swaps to be integrated into any application, enabling value exchange to be performed seamlessly between all parties in the ecosystem. Using this protocol, developers can build innovative payment flows and applications, including instant token swap services, ERC20 payments, and financial DApps helping to build a world where any token is usable anywhere. Kyber’s ecosystem is growing rapidly. In about a month, the team got an investment and partnered with some of the best projects. ParaFi Capital, a blockchain-focused investment company, has made a strategic purchase of KNC codes. The company will assist the DeFi project by qualifying new clients and improving professional market manufacture. The project’s recent partnerships seem impressive. Includes Chainlink, Chicago DeFi Alliance, and Digifox Wallet.
An important DeFi integration was also made with MakerDAO. KNC can now be used as a DAI warranty. The project has reached a milestone worth $ 1 billion of total turnover since its inception. More importantly, volume on an annual basis is moving and accelerating from $ 70 million in the first year to more than $ 600 million in 2020. Recently five million KNC (about 2.4% of total supply) were burned, improving Kyber’s supply and demand ratio. In July, the Kyber network witnessed a Katalyst upgrade that will improve governance, signature, delegation and structural improvements.
When Katalyst hits the main network, users will be able to either vote directly or delegate tokens to shareholder groups led by either companies like Stake Capital or community members. The KNC used to vote is burned, and in turn, voters get ETH as a reward. This setting creates a model for staking an uncommon contraction for the Kyber network. KyberDAO will facilitate chain governance, like many other projects based on Ethereum. An interesting partnership with xToken has been set up to help less-participating users stake out via xKNC. xKNC automatically makes specific voting decisions, making it easier for users to join and enjoy the return. The pool was created to draw BTC to Curve. Users who do this are eligible for returns in SNX, REN, CRV, and BAL. The more BTC lock on Synthetix, the more liquid it becomes, and the more attractive it is for traders. The project plans to continue expanding its products and move towards more decentralization. Synthetix futures are scheduled to appear on the exchange within a few months. The initial leverage is expected to be 10 to 20 times. The team aims to neglect its central oracle and replace it with one from Chainlink during the second stage of the migration. This will significantly increase the decentralization and flexibility of the platform. For following the project:
Derivatives: In traditional finance, a derivative represents a contract where the value is derived from an agreement based on the performance of an underlying asset. There are four main types of derivative contracts: futures, forwards, options, and swaps.
Synthetix is a decentralized artificial asset issuance protocol based on Ethereum. These synthetic assets are guaranteed by the Synthetix Network (SNX) code which enables, upon conclusion of the contract, the release of Synths. This combined collateral model allows users to make transfers between Compound directly with the smart contract, avoiding the need for counterparties. This mechanism solves DEX’s liquidity and sliding issues. Synthetix currently supports artificial banknotes, cryptocurrencies (long and short) and commodities.
SNX holders are encouraged to share their tokens as part of their proportionate percentage of activity fees are paid on Synthetix.Exchange, based on their contribution to the network. It contains three DApp applications for trading, signature and analysis: Exchange (Synths at no cost). Mintr (SNX lock for tuning and fee collection). Synthetix Network Token is a great platform in the ethereum ecosystem that leverages blockchain technology to help bridge the gap between the often mysterious cryptocurrency world and the more realistic world of traditional assets. That is, on the Synthetix network, there are Synths, which are artificial assets that provide exposure to assets such as gold, bitcoin, US dollars, and various stocks such as Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). The whole idea of these artificial assets is to create shared assets where users benefit from exposure to the assets, without actually owning the asset.
It is a very unique idea, and a promising project in the ethereum landscape. Since it helps bridge the gap between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets, it creates a level of familiarity and value that is often lost in the assets of other digital currencies. This will make Synthetix take his seat in the next stage. On June 15, BitGo announced support for SNX and on June 19, Synthetix announced via blog post that Synthetix, Curve, and Ren “collaborated to launch a new stimulus group to provide liquidity for premium bitcoin on Ethereum”, and said the goal was to “create the most liquid Ethereum — the BTC-based suite available to provide traders with the lowest slippage” In trade between sBTC, renBTC and WBTC. “ For following the project:
Wallets: Wallets are a crucial gateway for interacting with DeFi products. While they commonly vary in their underlying product and asset support, across the board we’ve seen drastic improvements in usability and access thanks to the growing DeFi narrative.
It is the startup for consumer game-changing financial technology, which makes decentralized web access safer and easier. The company has built a smart and easy-to-use mobile wallet for Ethereum, which gives users the ability to easily retrieve their encrypted currencies on the go.
Asset Management: With such a vast amount of DeFi products, it’s crucial that tools are in place to better track and manage assets. In line with the permissionless nature of the wider DeFi ecosystem, these assets management projects provide users with the ability to seamlessly track their balances across various tokens, products and services in an intuitive fashion.
It is a smart wallet for DeFi that allows users to seamlessly manage multiple DeFi applications to maximize returns across different protocols in a fraction of the time. With InstaDapp, users can take advantage of industry-leading projects like Compound, MakerDAO and Uniswap in one easy-to-use portal. Instadapp currently supports dapps MakerDAO and Compound DeFi, allowing users to add collateral, borrow, redeem and redeem their collateral on each dapp, as well as refinance debt positions between the two. In addition to its ease of use, InstaDapp also adds additional benefits and use cases for supported projects that are not already supported. The project focuses on making DeFi easier for non-technical users by maintaining a decentralized spirit while stripping many of the confusing terms that many products bring with them.
InstaDapp has launched a one-click and one-transaction solution that allows users to quadruple the COMP Codes they can earn from using quadruple borrowing and lending. A good timing feature for sure, but this kind of simplification is exactly why Instadapp was created. Its goal is to create a simple interface into multiple DeFi applications running on the Ethereum Blockchain and then automate complex interactions in a way that enables users to maximize their profits while reducing transactions and Ethereum gas charges. To use Instadapp you will need Ethereum wallet and you will also have to create what is called Instadapp smart wallet in which token you want to use. For following the project:
Savings: There are a select few DeFi projects which offer unique and novel ways to earn a return by saving cryptocurrencies. This differs from lending as there is no borrower on the other side of the table.
Dharma is an easy-to-use layer above the compound protocol. It introduces new and non-technical users to transaction encryption and allows them to easily borrow or lend in DeFi markets and earn interest in stable currencies. You can start by simply using a debit card. Funds are kept in a non-portfolio portfolio, which constantly earns interest on all of your deposited assets. The value of Dharma’s DeFi lending experience is:
To raise money, recipients simply download the Dharma app. After creating a Dharma account, users connect their Twitter account to receive access to the money sent. They can choose to transfer money to US dollars and withdraw to a bank account, or leave DAI in a Dharma account where it will earn interest like all Dharma deposits. The submitted DAI will gain interest even before the receiving user requests it while waiting for the claim. In her ad, Dharma demonstrated a number of ways in which the new social payments feature can be used, including tips for your favorite Twitter personalities, accepting payments for goods or services in a very clear way, charitable donations across borders or transfer payments. The Dharma app is available for both Android and iOS. Dharma and Compound
Dharma generates interest by DAI signing the Compound Protocol. Dharma also appeared in the news recently after the release of a specification outlining a Layer 2 expansion solution allowing the platform to expand to handle current transaction volume 10x, ensuring users can transfer their money quickly even in times of heavy congestion on the Ethereum network. Dharma is developing its “core” and “underwriting” contracts within the company. Underwriting contracts are open source and non-custodian, while each loan contract is closed source. This means that the receiving address contains nodes that interact with a script on a central Dharma server.For following the project:
Insurance: Decentralized insurance protocols allow users to take out policies on smart contracts, funds, or any other cryptocurrencies through pooled funds and reserves.
Nexus Mutual uses blockchain technology to return mutual values to insurance by creating consistent incentives with the smart contract symbol on the Ethereum blockchain. It is built on the Ethchaum blockchain and uses a modular system to aggregate smart Ethereum nodes, allowing to upgrade the system’s logical components without affecting other components.
The way Nexus works is members of the mutual association by purchasing NXM codes that allow them to participate in the decentralized independent organization (DAO). All decisions are voted on by members, who are motivated to pay real claims. It sees plenty of opportunities in a gradual transition of Ethereum to Eth 2.0, which is expected to start later this year. Eth 2.0 moves the network from the power-hungry Proof-of-Consensus (PoW) algorithm to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), a way to sign cryptocurrency in order to keep the network afloat. Having a steady return on signature from the Ether (ETH) can be somewhat compared to the way in which insurance companies invest in the real world the premiums they collect.
By setting a strong set of conditions for Nexus Mutual, anyone will be able to bring in and acquire a new form of risk for mutual coverage — assuming that members are willing to share NXM. With this design, the mutual discretion will be able to expand into much broader fields beyond smart contracts. In addition to defining multi-layered term agreements, Nexus Mutual also has some other advantages needed to achieve this visualization. For following the project:
Disclaimer: This report is a study of what is happening in the market at the present time and we do not support or promote any of the mentioned projects or cryptocurrencies. Any descriptions of the jobs and services provided are for information only. We are not responsible for any loss of funds or other damages caused.
﷽submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]
The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market CrashThe Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of BitcoinThe reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of BitcoinTechnical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Trend Definition Analysis of BitcoinTrend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of BitcoinTime is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
submitted by benohanlon to komodoplatform [link] [comments]
A total prize pool of 7,000 KMD in our infographic contest
Calling all creatives to take part in our infographic contest and compete for a prize of 7,000 KMD. The winning infographic will explain the architecture of Komodo Platform’s technology. Winners will be those who are able to communicate our architecture and tech visually. This contest will run primarily on Reddit, with the exception of resources being posted to Medium and a master twitter thread for submissions on Twitter. You'll find links at the bottom of this post.
Prizes for winning infographics.Are you a creative designer? Here's what you can win…
Prizes for sharing and giving feedback!Not a designer? That's OK. You can still participate and win! We'll award five lucky winners 100 KMD each for sharing and promoting the contest. Winners will be picked in a raffle. If you'd like to take part click here https://gleam.io/MwMtO/komodos-20-infographic-contest-5000-kmd-grand-prize and share this post with your friends.
Our Criteria to JudgePlease note that upvotes and shares are not the only criteria we'll use to judge winners. While useful, we will value creativity, good questions and discussion on Reddit highly. When sharing your posts you will score more highly if people comment, provide feedback and are engaged.
How do you win?You may submit up to two infographics. By submitting an infographic, you understand Komodo may post and use your submissions on our digital channels during and after the contest. Each infographic must have it's own post.
Contest Timeline Guide (these dates indicative and are subject to change).
ResourcesIf you need help please post in this thread, or email [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) with ‘Infographic Contest’ in the subject line.
Entries and submissions for the infographic contest. You can click here to see them all in a scrollable thread on Twitter.
25/09/18 - First Round of FeedbackInfographics should use graphical design elements to visually represent the Komodo Architecture Story found here: https://komodoplatform.com/komodo-platform-a-brief-overview/ included in our ‘required reading’. There’s also a bullet point aid: https://medium.com/@benohanlon/bullet-point-aid-to-help-you-the-history-of-komodos-architecture-dced35b29965 you may find useful.
If you’ve not been included in the first round it’s because the submission hadn’t been made when the team reviewed. Don’t worry though because we’re organising hangouts and further feedback to help.
We hosted a round of live feedback sessions via Zoom. The recording is here:https://soundcloud.com/blockchainists/zoom-call-first-round-of-feedback-for-komodos-infographic-contest#t=3:50
TimelineThe first block in the KMD blockchain was mined just under two years ago, on September 13, 2016 to 9:04 PM. Since then, Komodo has demonstrated a commitment to innovation and established a history of execution.
If you would like to update your post, please edit and add to the post so people can see the different iterations. Entries and submissions for the infographic contest. You can click here to see them all in a scrollable thread on Twitter.
Daily Blockchain. The following visualization uses the Open Source vivagraph.js library to display the networked nature of Bitcoin. You can see Bitcoin transaction happening in real-time and the evolving hubs of the Bitcoin network. 4. Interaqt. This one by luchendricks goes in the same direction – it is also a visualization of live Bitcoin transaction. Here the size of the nodes represents ... A visualisation of live Bitcoin transactions from the Blockchain, using WebGL, three.js and physics. See every new Bitcoin transaction, the moment it hits the blockchain in this intereactive, 3D experience unlike anywhere else on the web! It’s not a secret that blockchain and crypto concepts rely on data heavily. That’s why traders, investors, and curious users should have tools to study this data. While traditional resources ... and tools provides visualization artifacts, including real-time trans- action visualization [1, 2, 4, 8] and transaction-network information navigation [5, 7, 9].
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